Probability Ferret sees contradictory same-day signals: BBC reported Iran says a deal with the US is not imminent, while BBC/NPR also reported market and diplomatic hopes around an emerging peace deal. This resolves TRUE if by 2026-06-08 23:59 UTC there is no publicly announced signed US-Iran peace/ceasefire/nuclear framework deal reported by BBC or NPR. It resolves FALSE if BBC or NPR reports before the horizon that the US and Iran signed or formally announced such a deal. Rumors, optimism, talks continuing, or oil-price reactions alone are not enough.
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